Thoughts on ENGLISH NEXT 2006

I finished reading David Graddol’s book “English Next 2006.” I have yet to start “English Next India 2010,” but before I do I want to document some thoughts, observations and predictions.

I read a comment on Jason Renshaw’s blog claiming David Graddol asserted that ELT was endangered. That’s not exactly accurate. The argument Graddol does make is that ELT as currently constituted will need to change to reflect emerging global patterns in English usage, and that UK and USA native speaker standards may not remain the benchmark by which everyone else measures their proficiency. He makes a case- I think correctly- that ELT will shift towards a focus on young learners. The teaching of older learners will increasingly become more and more specialized and integrated with content areas.

One of things he forecast I think he got wrong was about that the enrollment of international students at native English country universities are in an inexorable decline. A quick web search on the subject reveals that by 2008, international student enrollments at universities in the United States rebounded to either being at, or were approaching record highs. I suspected this was the case.

In terms of things I’m not sure I agree with about his predictions but want to think about more starts with the question of who will “own” English in the future. It will certainly be a very interesting area of research for generations to come, but I think Graddol underestimates the role of culture in the process of language acquisition. At one point he asserts that other countries may not want English native speakers to be involved in their educational efforts because of the cultural baggage attached. However, you can’t really ever separate language from culture, and I certainly don’t think you can separate culture from the affective aspects of the learning process. I think I’ll leave additional comment on this point for a future post.

The other thing I want to try and think through is his assertion that the rise of global English will seemingly paradoxically create an increasing demand for multilingualism. My gut tells me if you look at the frame of reference of the next hundred years, while the numbers of multilingual people will rise in societies, the functional trends will inexorably point towards English for most practical purposes. And that’s because global human interaction as a whole system is just going to be easier conducted through English. In most kinds of systems- without artificial outside interference- everything naturally flows towards the easier ways of getting things done. I guess that’s a somewhat long-winded way of saying I’m not sure I agree with his assertion that monolingual native English speakers will be at a “severe” competitive disadvantage in the future.

English Next 2006 was definitely thought-provoking, and I’ll be posting further thoughts when I finish up with “English Next India 2010″ in the next couple of days.